Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) divides the total circulating Bitcoin supply by annual new issuance. The concept is borrowed from commodity analysis: assets whose yearly production is small against the existing stock, such as gold, carry a high S2F. Because Bitcoin issuance is cut in half roughly every four years at each halving, S2F does not rise smoothly - it steps up, which is why the chart looks like a staircase.
This chart shows real data up to September 27, 2026. The live value is free on Cedvel - no subscription needed.
Source: stock_to_flow (bitview.space / Bitcoin Research Kit)
What is it?
The ratio of the current total supply (stock) to annual new production (flow) - a measure of scarcity. A concept borrowed from commodity analysis, also used for 'hard money' assets like gold/silver.
How is it calculated?
S2F = Total Circulating Supply / Annual New Production. Because new Bitcoin production halves every 4 years at each halving, S2F jumps periodically like a staircase.
How to read it
Higher S2F = lower annual supply growth = (in theory) stronger scarcity pressure. Usually compared against price on a log-log axis; the real debate is over how closely price has actually tracked the model S2F 'predicts'.
Things to watch out for
The popular S2F price-prediction models (PlanB) diverged notably from realized price after 2021 - while S2F is a reasonable tool for measuring scarcity, it should not be treated on its own as a reliable price-prediction model.
Historical usage
The scarcity half of S2F is not controversial: its denominator is set by the protocol and involves no forecasting. The dispute is over the PRICE models derived from that ratio. The best known S2F price model (PlanB) diverged notably from realized price after 2021, so Cedvel draws no model price or target level on this page - only the ratio itself. Because the chart reaches back to 2009, the steps produced by the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings can be read straight off the series.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow?
It is the ratio of total circulating supply to annual new production. A high S2F means very few new coins are issued each year relative to the supply that already exists - in other words, greater scarcity.
How does a halving change S2F?
A halving cuts the block subsidy in half, which halves the annual issuance in the denominator. All else equal that roughly doubles the S2F ratio. This is why the series is a set of four-yearly steps rather than a smooth curve.
Can the S2F model be used to forecast price?
Cedvel does not recommend it. S2F is a reasonable way to measure scarcity, but the popular price models built on it diverged notably from realized price after 2021. One input to the model - the issuance schedule - is certain, yet it says nothing about demand, and price is the outcome of both together.
Why is S2F compared to gold?
Because the concept originates there: gold's high S2F comes from annual mining output being small against the existing stock, and it underpins the 'hard money' argument. Bitcoin's S2F is designed to approach and then exceed gold's over successive halvings.