Bitcoin NUPL
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) summarizes, in a single ratio, how much of the entire circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in aggregate profit or loss relative to the current market price. It is mathematically related to the MVRV ratio, but is conventionally interpreted through five distinct market-'psychology' zones.
This chart shows real data up to September 27, 2026. The live value is free on Cedvel - no subscription needed.
Source: nupl (bitview.space / Bitcoin Research Kit)
What is it?
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss - shows how much of the total circulating supply is, in aggregate, in profit or loss relative to the current market price, expressed as a share of market value.
How is it calculated?
NUPL = (Market Value − Realized Value) / Market Value. Mathematically related to the MVRV ratio (NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV), but conventionally read through a market-'psychology' lens.
How to read it
The traditional five zones: below 0 is Capitulation (majority underwater), 0-0.25 Hope/Fear, 0.25-0.5 Optimism/Anxiety, 0.5-0.75 Belief/Denial, above 0.75 Euphoria/Greed (majority holding large gains - the historical signature of cycle tops).
Things to watch out for
Reflects the market's AVERAGE state - can be misleading on its own in periods where individual cohorts (new buyers vs. long-term holders) are in very different positions.
Historical usage
Periods where NUPL rose above 0.75 ('Euphoria/Greed') have historically overlapped with cycle-top regions, and periods where it fell below 0 ('Capitulation') have overlapped with historical bottom regions. This five-zone framework first gained traction in the on-chain analyst community and serves a similar purpose to MVRV Z-Score - positioning the market relative to its own historical norm.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is NUPL calculated?
NUPL = (Market Value − Realized Value) / Market Value. It's related to the MVRV ratio via NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV - the same underlying data presented on a different scale.
What are NUPL's five zones?
Below 0 is Capitulation (majority underwater), 0-0.25 Hope/Fear, 0.25-0.5 Optimism/Anxiety, 0.5-0.75 Belief/Denial, above 0.75 Euphoria/Greed (majority holding large gains - the historical signature of cycle tops).
What's the difference between NUPL and MVRV Z-Score?
Both are derived from the same two quantities (Market Value, Realized Value), but presented on different scales: MVRV Z-Score is a standard-deviation-based outlier measure, while NUPL directly shows the aggregate profit/loss share as a ratio.