Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
MVRV Z-Score is an on-chain outlier indicator that measures how many standard deviations Bitcoin's market value (Market Value) sits away from its on-chain realized value (Realized Value). It's used to gauge how extreme the current price is relative to the market's own historical norm.
This chart shows real data up to September 27, 2026. The live value is free on Cedvel - no subscription needed.
Source: market_cap + realized_cap (bitview.space / Bitcoin Research Kit)
What is it?
Measures how many standard deviations Bitcoin's Market Value sits away from its Realized Value - an outlier (z-score) indicator of how extreme the current price is relative to the market's own historical norm.
How is it calculated?
Z = (Market Value − Realized Value) / standard deviation of Market Value. Realized Value sums every coin at the price it last moved on-chain, reflecting an on-chain 'real cost basis' rather than the current spot price.
How to read it
Above 7 has historically overlapped with cycle-top regions (market extremely detached from realized value). Below 0.5 has historically overlapped with cycle-bottom/capitulation regions (market at or near realized value). The range between is a 'neutral' zone.
Things to watch out for
As the market matures (supply grows, volatility structurally declines), historical thresholds may drift over time - read as a relative positioning signal, not a precise buy/sell trigger.
Historical usage
MVRV Z-Score is one of the most commonly referenced indicators for marking tops and bottoms in Bitcoin's past market cycles: periods where it rose above 7 have overlapped with historical cycle tops, and periods below 0.5 have overlapped with historical bottom/capitulation regions. This is not a guarantee that the same thresholds repeat in future cycles - they can drift as the market matures.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is MVRV Z-Score calculated?
Z = (Market Value − Realized Value) / standard deviation of Market Value. Realized Value is a measure summed from the price each coin last moved on-chain at - it reflects an on-chain 'real cost basis' rather than the current market price.
What does a high or low MVRV Z-Score mean?
Values above 7 have historically overlapped with cycle-top regions (market extremely detached from realized value). Values below 0.5 have historically overlapped with cycle-bottom/capitulation regions (market has dropped to or near realized value). This is not a precise buy/sell signal, but a relative positioning indicator.
Is MVRV Z-Score sufficient on its own?
No. As the market matures, historical thresholds can drift over time; the indicator should be read alongside other on-chain metrics such as NUPL and SOPR, not in isolation.