Bitcoin Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk is the ratio of price to long-term holders' 'conviction' (the accumulated implicit opportunity cost of not selling) - an indicator that tries to measure the relative risk/reward of opening a new position at the current price level.
Preview: the last 90 days of real data, up to September 27, 2026. The full history and live data are available with Cedvel Pro.
Source: reserve_risk (bitview.space / Bitcoin Research Kit)
What is it?
The ratio of price to long-term holders' 'conviction' (HODL Bank - the accumulated implicit opportunity cost of not selling) - an indicator that tries to measure the relative risk/reward of opening a new position at the current price level.
How is it calculated?
Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank (the accumulated 'coin days destroyed' value of unspent coins). A low value = high conviction + low price combination.
How to read it
Low Reserve Risk (the region seen at historical bottoms) points to periods where long-term holders showed strong conviction AND price was low - historically attractive risk/reward periods. A high value points to the opposite - periods close to tops where conviction is high while price is also high (over-optimism).
Things to watch out for
'HODL Bank' is a cumulative quantity (it never decreases) - so the indicator structurally changes over time, and comparing absolute levels across different cycles directly can be misleading.
Historical usage
Low Reserve Risk values (the region seen at historical bottoms) have historically overlapped with periods where long-term holders showed strong conviction AND price was low; high values point to the opposite - periods close to tops where conviction is high while price is also high.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Reserve Risk calculated?
Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank (the accumulated 'coin days destroyed' value of unspent coins). A low value means a high-conviction + low-price combination.
What does a high or low Reserve Risk mean?
Low Reserve Risk points to periods, historically attractive from a risk/reward standpoint, where long-term holders show strong conviction AND price is low. A high value points to periods close to tops, where conviction is high while price is also high (over-optimism).
What's the limitation of Reserve Risk?
'HODL Bank' is a cumulative quantity that never decreases - the indicator structurally changes over time, so comparing absolute levels across different cycles directly can be misleading.